Willa is now officially a Cat 4 Hurricane with winds of 155 mph (2 short of Cat 5) and with gusts up to 190 mph. She is headed straight North at 8 mph, which is a little faster than before. After midnight tonite, she should take a jog to the East and drop to a Cat 3. This will put her on track to come ashore at Escuinapa, a town of about 30,000 people surrounded by an estuary. I have not been able to find the predicted storm surge, but since the arrival of the hurricane roughly corresponds with a four foot high tide at 9 pm, it could get bad there.
In Mazatlan, it will start to rain in earnest around noon tomorrow and continue through midnight, dropping .1 to .4 inches of rain per hour. Winds should peak at 60 mph around 6 pm. But the wind direction is out of the North East, meaning it will hit the back of the horseshoe condo complexes, protecting the balconies, pool area and our palm trees. Wednesday should be still, wind-wize, but the rain will continue most of the day. There will be a high tide at 9 am Wednesday and another at 9 pm. This is when the water’s gonna back up at the river mouth and estuary. I would not be surprised if the causeway out gets waterlogged or even over-topped so be careful if you are in residence and decide to venture out.
I have not considered storm surge. Since we are on the downhill side of the storm, it should not be bad. But if Willa fails to turn right as far as she is predicted, all bets are off.
What happens in the mountains as far as run-off, I don’t know. The storm tracker takes the rapidly deteriorating storm straight over to Durango and thence into Texas. Watch out Austin!
And during the next 48 hrs, watch out Barron! Watch out Colonia!
If you would like to watch the storm, Las Villas has a web-cam mounted to oversee the pool and it looks west towards Stone Island. Check it out below: